“American wine drinkers are balking at the high prices for….. Bordeaux prices, despite the……..classic quality.  More than a month after the first….futures went on sale, retailers across the country report that consumers are buying them, but not in large amounts.  The……futures were offered at the highest levels in history with the retail price…..averaging $545 a bottle.  The increases are staggering with the…..Cheval Blanc futures….selling for 110 percent higher…….the Chateau Palmer 89 percent higher and the Chateau Haut Brion at $571,” versus the average auction price of $423 for the for stellar 1982 that is ready to drink tonight.  “You have to buy 1961 wines to find Bordeaux more expensive than this.”  Re-read this paragraph carefully because it’s a quote from a Wine Spectator article published in July of 2006 right on the heels of the ’05 “Bordeaux vintage of the century.”  You can also find similar articles that describe the fervor over the turn of the century 2000 vintage.  Does this ring familiar, right here…..right now about the ’09 vintage?  The looming question is can we learn anything about the pricing evolution of top vintage classified Bordeaux that can help you (and me) make some purchasing decisions about the ‘09’s? 

Let start with the year 2000 wines.  While I don’t have a long list of futures pricing on first growths, I do recall ordering a little of the Lafite and Margaux in 2001, plunking down about $300 per bottle.  I remember feeling aghast that I would spend so much on a single bottle of wine that I would not see for a couple of years.   The wines were bottle released in ‘03 at ~$400, the Lafite selling today for $2000 and the Margaux a bargain at ~$1100.  Remember, this was the post internet bubble burst.  The Haut Brion which was bottle released at $424 today goes for around $600.  Let’s take a gander at the 2nd growth Cos d’Estournel which was bottle released at $95.   Today is goes for a moderate $150.  On the other hand the Leoville Las Cases, released at $170, has skyrocketed today to a cool $360!

For the 2005’s, the Chateau Haut Brion futures price was offered at $571/bottle in 2006.  The bottle release jumped to $930 in 2008, dipped into the $600’s during the recession and has bounced back today to the high $700’s-800.  The Lafite futures were released around $620.   Today, a bottle will run you about $1200.  The Las Cases futures ran $280 and the Cos $200 if you bought some in ’06.  Release prices in ’08  were, respectively $315 and $206.  Today, the Las Cases will run you ~$300 and the Cos ~$190-200, very little price appreciation today from futures release in 2006.   Pontet Canet, an outstanding 5th growth that I have purchased over the years and written about in the Collection Corner, saw the ’05 futures pricing come out at ~$82, the public release price at $100 and the pricing today at $110 on average. 

Now to today’s feature event: the ’09 classified Bordeaux futures.  As mentioned in my most recent Blog, the Lafite, Mouton and Margaux released the first tranche of futures pricing at $550US from the Chateau while Haut Brion went for $612.  Remember that these prices don’t reflect the negociant nor retailer mark ups which will likely take these prices to the $1000+ mark.   The Cos futures will will set you back ~$300 while the Pontet Canet run~$130…..this for what will probably be the closest that owner Alfred Tesseron has even come to a 100 point wine.

So what can we extrapolate about the ’09’s?  If we look at the ‘00 and ‘05 first growths, they indicate that futures prices offer a better entry to the wines than later bottle purchase.  In addition, it’s clear that the ’00 and ‘05 first growths have gained in pricing appreciably since their bottle.  This is the usual coarse for the first growths, especially in classic vintages.

With the 2nd through 5th growths, the pattern becomes a bit more inconsistent.  The ‘05 Las Cases and Cos have appreciated very little whereas 5th growth Pontet Canet and 2nd growth Malescot St. Exupery have seen significant percent increases.
 
The big unknown this time around however is the global financial fiasco that only now is revealing its scope.  You know that I have maintained that “this time is different” from all past recessions since the Great Depression.  Even with China and Hong Kong coming to the rescue, plunking down what amounts to $12-14,000 per case of wine, the looming question for me is whether record futures pricing will hold, how they’ll translate into release prices and how much appreciation there is left going forward?   If you’re considering the auction block for the wine and thus looking for appreciation, the current environment has to make you pause.

Finally, if you’re considering scouring the landscape for ’00 or ‘05 “bargains,” due to ’09 futures pricing, be advised that whatever is available, may not be for long at those prices.  History says that pricing pressure will elevate those prices as collectors search for alternative classics.

Wine                                       ’09 Futures ($)           ’05 ($) bottle      ’00($)bottle
Chateau Haut Brion                            ~1,200                      800                ~600*
Chateau Lafite Rothschild                  1,100                   2,000            ~2,200
Chateau Margaux Margaux       ~ 1,000-1,200          1,100            ~1,200
Cheval Blanc                                            1,050                       800               1,100*
Cos d’Estournel (2nd gr)                        300                       200                 170*
Pontet Canet  (5th gr)                               130                       110                  90*  
Duhart Milon Rothschild(4th gr)            85                        80                  80*  

(*) indicates ready for drinking   

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Tags: 2009 Bordeaux, futures, wine collection