They’re record breaking……….just no other way to say it.  With the first Bordeaux futures tranches or allotments now released, they’re every bit as staggering as envisioned.  Chateau Lafite and Mouton Rothschild and Margaux released their first tranche pricing from the Chateau’s at $550US while Haut Brion went one better at $612US.   Remember, these are not the final consumer prices as negociant and retail pricing must be added in.  When all is said and done, some of these will approach or even exceed $1000US.   Fueled by a slowly rebounding US economy, efforts to stabilize European countries such as Greece and Spain and still vigorous and financially flushed China, vintners are counting on a brisk consumer response to still another “Bordeaux vintage of the century,” right on the heels of the 2000 and 2005 (not that 2003 was shabby either).  Right out the gate, they appear to have some justification for elation.  Many US merchants report that consumers are ruefully paying up for the rights to own some of these treasures in 2012 while others say that there is some sticker shock and restraint.  The strongest consumer push behind these prices seems to be flowing from Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong.  It remains to be seen whether they have force to maintain the early intense demand.
 
As a framework for comparison, these futures prices are the highest on record, surpassing even the hot 2005 futures prices, this while our equity markets have essentially stagnated for the last decade and we emerge from the worst economic environment in nearly 80 years!  How about that for a disconnect!  So how does one make sense of all of this?  In a nutshell, it’s a case of another great Bordeaux vintage along with a keen sense of marketing and timing by the Bordelais region that convinces wine enthusiasts around the globe that you just “gotta have it, right here, right now.” 

As mentioned earlier, only a fraction of each of the first growth’s  futures have been made public, perhaps only a third by some estimates.  Does this mean that pricing for future tranches will change?  Possibly.  If China (with the support of other markets) can exhaust the supply, then prices will either maintain or increase (pretty scary).  If, however, it becomes clear that the initial fervor has subsided and demand has stabilized at a lower level, perhaps pricing will soften slightly.  Either way, I don’t envision any bargains based upon the initial response.
 
So where do you (and I) fit into this equation?  Do we close our eyes, open our wallets and pull out the credit card?  In order to answer this question, we need to look at some very basic parameters.  At the very foundation of it all is what you can afford?  If you can’t afford what you want, then afford what you can.  The great equalizer in a superb vintage such as the ’09, the 05 and the ‘00 is that it tend to lift “all boats” or all wines, in our case.  If the first growths are out of your range, don’t hesitate to explore the 2nd through 5ths as well as the non-classifieds.

Second, and I raise this question all the time…………what is your motive for buying?  It sounds like a simple question, but often enthusiasts get mixed up.  Are you building your wine collection for consumption or for auction?  Most of us fall into the former category.  This is an important distinction to make.  If you really think that wine auctions are in your future, then make sure that you purchase auction worthy wine, even if it means reducing your allotment……..otherwise, you’re wasting valued dollars.

Third, for the bucks that you spend, do you want to wait two years for the product to arrive and perhaps another decade before you can enjoy it?  I have yet to open some 2000’s, still waiting for them to settle down.  Picking up ’09 futures means that the wine will likely not be primed until 2015-20.  On the other hand, if you purchase the same wine from the ’05 or ’00 vintage, you have bottle in hand and it will be ready for drinking earlier.

Fourth, within the confines of your budget, what are your needs?  Are you a beginner collector or a seasoned one?  If the former and you’re intent of grabbing some ’09 futures now, you might start with the more affordable wines with pricing that fits your budget.  I’ve  seen lots of great wines with futures pricing running between $30-60/bottle.  I detail this further in the Collector Corner  If the latter, you may have some “holes” to fill in your building or burgeoning collection.  That might mean adding some ’09 to continue to build a vertical or picking up some from an earlier vintage.
 
Finally, keep a close eye on the ’00 and ’05 classified Bordeaux.  Their pricing evolution from futures to release price to today’s prices may influence your choices when considering where the ’09 will be five or ten years from now.   Could past classics be a better deal? For more on this, head over to the Collectors Corner where I’ll share some interesting pricing data.

Tags: 2009 Bordeaux, first growths, futures, wine collection, wne auction